In the latest episode of Talking Economics, we speak with Vladimír Novák, Senior Economist at the National Bank of Slovakia and CERGE-EI PhD alumnus, about his recent research and how it connects to real-world policy challenges. Vladimír’s academic work focuses on how individuals process information and how that, in turn, shapes their beliefs, choices, and societal outcomes. His recent paper, published in the American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, introduces a novel mechanism for understanding belief polarization, even among rational individuals.
A New Mechanism for Polarization
At the heart of his research is the idea that even rational, inattentive individuals can become polarized—not because of cognitive biases like confirmation bias, but due to how they value the status quo and how limited attention shapes the information they choose to seek.
“We show that people’s evaluation of the current situation determines what kind of information they seek. This leads to systematically different beliefs about the same policy, even among individuals with similar expectations.”
This mechanism leads to polarization ex-ante: people diverge in opinion not because they are exposed to different news sources, but because they seek different information based on their personal status quo.
“The polarization happens even if people interpret the information correctly. It’s not about misinterpretation. It’s about what you choose to pay attention to.”
Testing the Theory in the Lab
To verify their theoretical model, Vladimír and his co-authors designed a lab experiment. The experiment confirmed the theoretical predictions. Individuals systematically sought different information based on their status quo evaluation, leading to polarized beliefs. Interestingly, the degree of polarization in the lab was somewhat smaller than predicted, but the underlying behavioral pattern held.
The team avoided imposing explicit costs for acquiring information. Instead, they designed the task to reflect cognitive costs—ensuring that participants’ behavior was driven by the mechanism under study, not by artificial constraints.
From Theory to Policy
Vladimír applies his expertise in behavioral and information economics as part of the Structural Analysis Section of the Strategic Initiatives Department at the National Bank of Slovakia. His work ranges from macroeconomic convergence and productivity trends to social inclusion and intergenerational mobility.
“We aim to uncover underlying mechanisms that are often overlooked in public debate. Theory can help us identify blind spots—and shape better policy.”
He emphasizes that polarization mechanisms are especially relevant when trying to understand public resistance to new policies. Surveys and data collection are key here, and he’s working to ensure that evaluations of both new and existing policies are included—something many standard surveys overlook.
“If we want to mitigate polarization, we must understand its causes. That means collecting data not just on people’s expectations, but also on how they perceive the current situation.”
Challenges and Priorities for Slovakia
Asked to highlight Slovakia’s main structural challenges, Vladimír points to several: lagging productivity growth, brain drain, and deteriorating health outcomes. But he also emphasizes the importance of less visible issues like intergenerational mobility.
“Socioeconomic background is still a strong determinant of success in Slovakia. We explored this in a special chapter of last year’s Structural Challenges publication, and we’re continuing this work in our upcoming edition.”
Rational Polarization in an Irrational World?
While his research shows that polarization can arise even among rational, well-intentioned individuals, it also suggests a potential path forward: by understanding the mechanisms behind disagreement, policymakers can better design communication strategies that meet people where they are.
“Knowing that people’s perception of the status quo shapes what information they seek gives us a chance to communicate more effectively.”
Listen to the full episode on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or YouTube to hear Vladimír discuss his research, insights from his work at the National Bank of Slovakia, and how economics can help us better understand—and respond to—polarization in society.
